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Cryptos and Movies, an uncanny comparison

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Cryptos and uncanny movie

Movies are an obsession of sorts for many, so is dealing with cryptocurrencies. The massive highs can easily outperform any high from a thriller movie and its drops can make scariest horror movies look comical. Besides being an obsession – there are many other uncanny factors that intertwine these two seemingly unrelated topics.

Fandom is real!

You never praise Star Wars in front of Star Trek fans or vice-versa. Doesn’t really matter how objective or open-minded these fans are about every other aspect of their life – when it comes to this all-important debate of ‘which is better: Star Wars or Star Trek?’ – each group has only one answer: ‘theirs’.

Don’t mind the people like us who hate both of them equally – don’t mind the fact that some of the movies that came out from both the franchises sucked – don’t mind the mind-numbing marketing gimmicks that are played on these gullible fans into buying into ultra-expensive memorabilia – don’t mind any of that. You never poke at the beehive that is fan club.

Still, the sting you will feel from the fans of crypto nation is worse.

You never praise Bitcoin in front of a Bitcoin Cash fanatic or vice-versa (Hint: There is no contest here, Bitcoin is better if you like long-term value, that is why we don’t even care to use ‘Core’ in the name, in our opinion there can only be one king and that is Bitcoin).

While there are not many rivalries in the movie industry that can live up to Star Wars vs. Star Trek cadre – that is not the case for cryptos. Crypto space offers even more intense war grounds for many many projects. In fact, if you ever get bogged down by the ups and downs or if you feel low, just visit one of the social media pages (telegram, Reddit, etc.) and post something against their project, grab some popcorn and enjoy! (don’t do this if you are thin skinned).

Even the best ones need marketing

Have you ever watched the movie Edge of Tomorrow? It has Tom Cruise and Emily Brunt. If you have not heard about the movie or did not watch it – it is not your fault. The marketing was woefully lacking for a movie that carried a great punch for the thrill-seeking moviegoers. It has an 8 star rating on IMDB but did not do great at the box office considering its 175 Million budget.

When Pantera Capital’s CEO, Dan Morehead, mentioned ICON during a Bloomberg interview, the reaction of the interviewer was a good example of what happens when marketing has not done its job. ICON has since stepped up its awareness campaign but it should have started way early.


Search for the better never ends

A good movie that you just watched does more harm than good. It increases your standard of entertainment. If the next movie is not as good (or better) – you will be disappointed, even if that movie was a decent one. So, you start screening for the next best one. Before you know it – you find yourself spending more time searching than actually watching.

That can be said of crypto space as well. Those who were able to get on the high-rides of Bitcoin, Ethereum, NEO etc., will probably find it difficult to settle with 50%, 100%, 500% or even 5000% gains. It just doesn’t cut it for them.

Even in this bear market, some good projects are selling at 300% gains from their ICO price, for instance, Wanchain is trading at 94 cents, that is 3 times higher than its ICO price of 30 cents. You ask any Wanchain fan as to how the project is doing (even those that were able to get in during ICO at 30 cents) – they will tell you a sob story. Because they are comparing it to its all-time high of $9 (that’s 30 times from ICO).

For a normal person trading in traditional stock market space, 50% gain is a rare occurrence – but in the crypto club 300% gain is a disappointment because the point of reference is 650,000% gains (yes, that happened with Bitcoin from $3 to $19,500, even in today’s bear market, it is still up 216,000% from its $3 rate at one point).

Budget doesn’t determine the outcome

Did you know Paranormal Activity was made with $15,000? Yet it grossed 180 Million dollars with Part 1! Ever since the franchise has launched – it has made over $890 Million. Bitcoin did better, much better and it was relatively free at the beginning and its rewards – uncanny. There is another similarity too – Paranormal activity left goosebumps while watching and after in the audience minds while Bitcoin has become nightmare to the very structure of traditional financial mafia.

There was a movie called Adventures of Pluto Nash (most people may not have heard about this, and for good reason) made with a budget of $100 Million and it made a meager $7.1 Million. People investing in ICO markets can relate to this – 100’s of millions of dollars just evaporating in the thin air as more and more ICO projects bite the dust.

Hype doesn’t equal content

Sometimes, hype helps sell the tickets but doesn’t keep the momentum. There were so many movies that were supposed to forever change the course of Box Office records and they ended up changing the producer’s fate for the worse! A Wrinkle in Time lost Disney $100 Million – even Oprah Winfrey couldn’t help lift this movie up! (pun intended).

Coming to the crypto space, there were way too many amazing-world changing-millionaire making-trend setting-making world amazing place-etc-etc-etc projects, all resulting in a big splash of shit on investors while the guys behind the projects fled with millions of dollars.

More the hype – the worseuncanny movie

Generally, the more hype something garners the worst it performs. Look at these movies that were supposed to be hits and they made big holes to the producers pockets.

BitConnect is a classic example from the ICO/Crypto world that this space will probably never forget, even if one tried. Can you imagine a fall from 2.85 Billion to 13 million?  No roller coaster in the world, not even skydiving, can match that fall! That’s about 219 fold collapse!

Do you know the worst part of this story?  BitConnect is still trading at 5 times the ICO price! This sort of thing can only happen in the crypto world!

Sometimes too many good ones come out at the same time and it hurts few more than the others

If you have to decide between multiple good movies screening at the same time, chances are you are forced to choose one over the others.

When multiple good ICO’s come out at the same time – it is easy to miss one over the other. When this competing for the crumbs ensues, projects that could have changed the world for the better don’t get enough funding and are forced to close the shop.

Especially in this bear market, many crypto folks can relate to the pain of that choice.  There are just so many good projects that are on sale but many have limited FIAT to spend on.

Wait, there are lessons here!

uncanny movie

It’s not just the comparison, there are lessons to be gleaned upon from these parallels.

Enter without expectation, and enjoy the ride!

If you cannot handle scary movies – don’t watch one! If you cannot risk it – don’t invest in Crypto!

 

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Why this bull run has no precedence? ONE key metric to rule them all

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bull run 2020

Everyone is singing the praises for the bulls’ arrival in the crypto space.

Some say that 2020 will mark the biggest bull run in cryptos’, albeit short, history.  

We are already in October so we doubt any fireworks will take place now since there is a lot of uncertainty about the US elections.

Add the uncertainty around the stimulus bills, unemployment trends, soon to be lifted forbearances and the list goes on.

2020 still has another 2.5 months to go but most of these uncertainties will take a while to show their true impact.

For instance, what will a Biden presidency mean for the economy and cryptos?  

How many people will be forced to sell their homes once the forbearance’s are lifted?

What happens if the next stimulus bill does not pass through?

When will the vaccine become available?

These are some of the unique situations that we have no precedence for. Do not let anyone convince you that we know what’s going to unfold, because no one does.

Yes, everyone has theories, like the ones we are presenting here, but that is all they are: theories.

The BIGGEST metric that crypto community is not considering

We are no economists nor can we run any fancy charts to impress a point on you.  

We are just good observers and have common sense to deduce a few things based on data.  

For instance, between 2007 and 2010 consumer spending dropped by an overall .2% and we know what that meant for the economy.

Personal consumption expenditure

In 2020, people have literally cut down on their spending.  Some of it is forced due to the restrictions imposed by external forces and most of it is self imposed.

I am sure the spending on marijuana, liquor and food have gone up but what about other spending?

2020 also saw a spike in the savings balances.  

Economy is not stimulated by people hoarding their money. People need to exchange value for the economy to thrive.

What happens to the spending behaviors when the true stats around evictions, lost jobs (that are not coming back) and small businesses that are shutting down permanently are out?

Our guess is that people are going to be weary of spending money in the short to medium term. If we were forced to pick a timeline – we would say about 12-16 months (assuming we get a vaccine in Q1 2021).

When is the next bull run? 

Based on what we have seen in 2007 through 2010 and observing the consumer spending habits in recent times, we think that Bitcoin (and cryptos) will not find their true peak until next halving.

We know this is not what you came to hear.  

If the bull run in your mind is hitting the 2017 highs then we do not think you have to wait until the next bull run.

If the bull run means a $100,000 bitcoin then we stand by our opinion on when that is going to be.

A case for bull run

In spite of what is going on in the street, following factors are acting as strong bull market signals for the crypto space. 

Hype: Crypto space (specifically Bitcoin) has been gathering a lot of steam in terms of brand awareness and mass penetration.  This is great for the long game.

Adoption: More than ever, private and public enterprises are becoming serious about bitcoin and underlying blockchain technology.  What is good for bitcoin is good for blockchain and vice-versa.  MicroStrategy investment, Paul Tudor Jones getting involved with bitcoin are some examples.

Tech explosion: Crypto space is home to some of the brilliant minds in the tech space. Add Big Techs interest in the crypto space and you have a perfect recipe for monumental shifts in crypto perception. Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Twitter, Facebook are all getting involved with blockchain and cryptocurrencies in some shape or form.

Retail demand: More and more retail investors are looking for alternative investments and they are waiting on the sidelines to get involved with Bitcoin.  As soon as companies like Fidelity or other brands offer crypto investment through retirement plans – there would be a massive influx into this space.

DeFi: DeFi in its current state might be infested with shittty projects but as a concept and technological shift to turn the current banking system upside down – it holds great potential. Any demand to DeFi brings more demand to bitcoin, ethereum and blockchain in general.

Conclusion

The debate around when is the next bull run will hinge on how the market recovers from this pandemic. How soon will we get the vaccine and how many of the lost small businesses and jobs are we going to resurrect?

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin and few select cryptocurrencies will continue their upward trajectory so if you looked back to 2020 five years from now, you might think bitcoin was on sale.  

Question is: how many people have that kind of patience?

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. We appreciate you.

Stay safe and healthy!

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies 2020

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

 

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CryptoSpace

Is Cryptocurrency driven by fundamentals or hype?

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Fundamentals or Hype

During the early 2000s India experienced a massive real estate bubble. With a lot of western companies opening their outsourcing centers in India, the land prices shot up 2x, 5x, 10x, and even 100x.

You read that right. 

Have you heard about 100x in Real Estate?

To be sure, the demand was exponentially growing in the major cities like Bangalore, Hyderabad, etc., which were quickly turning into back offices for the many western companies.

The hype in these cities was somewhat justified.

However, here is the kicker.  Many remote places which did not directly benefit from this influx of foreign direct investment started seeing their prices go up in similar fashion.

In a crazy case of trickle effect and super-hype created by the real estate agents, properties were just trading from one party to another for unbelievable markups and the prices constantly went up.

Today, that massive bubble is still intact minus the crazy multipliers.

The reason we like the comparison of what happened in Indian Real Estate market to the crypto is that a genuine need in a specific space has been exploited to translate that hype onto anything tagged with the name. 

In India that hype tag was ‘land’ and in crypto that hype tag could mean anything from ICOs to DeFi.

Ask any crypto enthusiast they will make you believe that crypto is all about fundamentals.  However, anyone who has spent even a few months in the space quickly realizes that crypto prices don’t follow fundamentals.  

This is one place where Crypto space shares its similarities with the stock market as well.

Stock market is completely distanced from the economy and it too acts irrationally, that is, when people are losing jobs and businesses are shutting down permanently, the stock market rallies higher and higher.

Similarly, crypto space, to its own detriment, is ignoring the projects that have amazing fundamentals while pumping other projects solely based on the hype.

Long term vs. Short term

Hype is short lived. Fundamentals are a long game.

That is why we emphasize that anyone interested in the crypto space does their own research in finding the projects that meet their fundamental criteria.

Once you know that a project has fundamentals (team that can execute, problem worth solving, solution that can solve, market demand, etc.,) then you just ignore the FOMO and FUD.

This will help you sleep better and use your spare time and energy in quality endeavors like taking care of yourself or spending time with family, etc.,

If you get on the hype train – it will be difficult to catch the right wave and this constant lookout for the next big thing is going to rob you of all the peace.

And, if you find yourself on the right side of the wave – you will be decimated and drowned.

DeFi defies all common sense

That is what happened with a lot of people who tried to ‘time’ the DeFi market.  

Don’t get us wrong. Many people made a ton of money (and good for them).  However, remember, crypto at this point of its evolution is a zero sum game.  That means, for everyone who made a million someone lost that million.

Unless you got on a project quite early keeping your risk level low or you have some insider information (not to mention this being illegal), you can generally not ‘time’ the market.

Many veteran traders have lost their shirts in chasing the market.

Conclusion: does this mean I should stay away from DeFi?

We cannot tell you that.  That is something you got to decide for yourself.

By market cap, Yearn Finance is considered one of the top DeFi projects. It lost over 67% in less than a month.   

Personally, if the top most project is still trying to find the ground while other projects are losing 99% of their value in a matter of a day, that means one thing:  the space needs time to mature.

We will continue to learn about DeFi. We will continue to invest what we can afford to lose when we find the right project that meets our fundamentals criteria.

That is our strategy at the moment. You have to find a strategy that suits you.

While crypto space is riding on the hype at the moment, we continue to believe in fundamentals.

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. We appreciate you.

Stay safe and healthy!

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies 2020

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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CryptoSpace

Will India Ban Cryptocurrency Trading?

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Cryptocurrrency Ban India

India keeps playing with the emotions of the crypto community in India with constant back and forth of change in rules.

First it was a complete ban of crypto transactions. RBI forbids banks from serving any clients that deal in cryptocurrencies. Thanks to the Supreme court decision, RBI had to back off.

Now, there is a renewed effort to place a ban on crypto again.  

Is Crypto Ban a good thing for India’s financial future?

No, Cryptocurrency is here to stay according to many financial investors and billionaires. As nations prepare for a hyper-inflation cycle to sweep the world, Cryptocurrency can act as a hedge in addition to gold and silver.

If the government is concerned about illegal activities with cryptos then they can relax because most crimes happen in fiat cash transactions, not crypto which is traceable.

Crypto traders generally are not the ones that take part in illicit trades.  It is those who introduce illegal ICOs and OTC trades.

How about regulations?

Instead of banning crypto trades, how about bringing clear regulations to provide a framework for the crypto trading.

Such a framework should include stricter guidelines for ICOs and OTC trades.  

Crypto exchanges can relay the trading information directly to the tax authorities (instead of needing to be subpoenaed) so that there is transparency.

Will India Ban Cryptocurrency Trading?

That depends on whether India wants to be in the ranks of the United States, Switzerland, South Korea, etc., or if it wants to be counted among China, Russia and North Korea.

The United States, South Korea and Switzerland (along with other countries) are doing everything to stay ahead in the blockchain and crypto race.

Other countries we stated above are working to stomp on the innovation. 

A better question is: Can India ban cryptocurrency trading?  

The answer is NO.  

To ban cryptocurrency trading – India will have to shut down the internet.  

In the event of an actual law that bans Indians from participating in the cryptocurrency trading, the only people that will be impacted by those are the ‘honest’ citizens because the crooked ones will still find ways to trade using VPN or alias names.

For a country that wants to be at the forefront of technological revolution a ban would be a very backward decision.

We urge the Indian government to NOT punish the honest citizens by introducing a ban.  Rather, introduce a sensible legal framework for everyone to operate in.

This will bring more businesses to India and take India’s platforms to the world.

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. We appreciate you.

Stay safe and healthy!

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies 2020

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

Continue Reading

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