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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Evergreen factors you need to understand

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bitcoin Price predictions

What to expect?

  • Factors that hint the price movement of bitcoin so you can make educated predictions 

bitcoin price forecastWhen it comes to Bitcoin price prediction it feels like everyone is an expert and they all have the same answer:  it can go up or it can go down.

Geez. Thanks a lot.  

If this prediction was made by a weatherman saying – it may rain or it may not, it would make for a shitty prediction, yet, Bitcoin price predictions all throw big charts into our face and when those charts don’t turn out the way they predicted, they just find a causation to blame.

To be clear, there are few good analysts and people with a grasp of the space who tend to call the bitcoin price movements accurately. The problem is, they charge $1000s of dollars to share their wisdom.  If people had $1000s of dollars to pay in fees – wouldn’t they go to a Wall Street broker?

For those of you who want to understand how to get a grip on Bitcoin price prediction, we will share what we look for in predicting the bitcoin price. These factors tend to correlate, correspond and coast with the bitcoin price movements. Learning to read these factors will help you predict bitcoin price movements with a little more basis.

Of course, these are our opinions and we have been wrong before – so please do your own research and use the below information to further your research, and to make your own decisions.

We predict Bitcoin will cross $20,000 in 2020

We have earlier called for a Bitcoin Price of $50,000 just based on the averages of all the different predictions made by crypto folks. However, here we will discuss the factors that hint of the price movement of bitcoin, whether that movement is up or down.

The basis of our $20,000 price prediction for 2020 is based on factors like google trends, demand, number of wallets, traditional market movements, and more. Let’s look at each factor and how it impacts bitcoin price predictions.

Factor #1: Google search trends

If you want to find something on the internet, what do you do?

You google.

We no longer say we search. The word search has been replaced by search. So when we say google search trends, we are simply talking about public search trends.  

That means, whenever people think about investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, they search and then either decide to invest or to not invest.  That is the reason there is a strong correlation between the two trends, that is, Bitcoin price movement and Google search trends. However, if you look closely, in a bull run the price outruns the search trends and in a bear market it precedes it.  

Look at these two charts from July 2013 through April 2020, one shows bitcoin price movement and other shows google bitcoin search trends.

Google Trends - Bitcoin price prediction

Google Trends - Bitcoin price prediction

Obviously, it makes it even more easier to see these trend lines laid out on top of each other. Someone did this for us, see below.

Charts Bitcoin Price

Overlay chart source: Exploratory.io

2020 data is very interesting because of the COVID-19 black swan event.  It is quite impressive that even during the crisis google search trends and bitcoin price movement are traveling in tandem.

Halving searches grow

There also seems to be a correlation between Bitcoin halving searches and the price movement. As Bitcoin gains the image of Gold 2.0, digital gold, rarest gold, safe haven etc, and then the halving scarcity adds to the mix – the interest in this rare asset class grows.   

If we keep an eye on the google trends – you can make an educated guess on the bitcoin price movement. Increased searches indicate a positive turn for price and a slump in searches indicate an downward price movement.

Factor #2: Media mentions

The number of times Bitcoin appears on the TV, gets mentioned on Twitter, Reddit or other social media seems to have a direct correlation on bitcoin’s price movement.

ChartStar has done a detailed analysis of the trend of bitcoin mentions on Reddit and its impact on price movement. Below we borrow a chart from their multiple chart analysis to showcase an example.

Reddit Bitcoin price charts

Tradingview took this correlation even further. They have used the CNBC Fast Money tweets to predict the bitcoin price movement with a 95% accuracy. They have used CNBC Fast Money tweets as contraindication of the bitcoin price movement.

A research paper titled, The Impacts of Social Media mentions on Bitcoin Performance, concludes that “First, a positive shock of bullish posting indicates positive bitcoin returns on the next day, and a positive shock of bearish posting affects returns negatively on the next day. Second, disagreement induces the trading of bitcoin: greater disagreement across messages precedes higher bitcoin exchange trading volume on the next day. Third, message posting has a significant impact on bitcoin transaction volume. From an investment perspective, Internet forum posts thus can be viewed as bitcoin popularity indicators, offering investors means to understand the price movements of bitcoin.

If you want to predict the price movement of bitcoin, gather intelligence around the media mentions, particularly from CNBC, Reddit and Twitter and chances are you might be able to predict the short-term movements with pretty awesome probability.

Factor #3:  User participation

Those who come to the project because of the price movement will leave the project for the same reason. Make a mental note of that statement. This is why Ripple’s fan club shrinked by 63% over 2 years while people flocking to Bitcoin (which had more volatile price action, although it did not lose 95% of its value from peak) have increased in strides.  

In fact, since the 2018 crash of the crypto market, the number of bitcoin wallets have gone up from 13 million to 48 million as of April 2020. That is over 3.7 times growth in wallets since the crash.  

This indicates that the use case and the acceptance of bitcoin has been increasing.

bitcoin price charts

Source: Bitcoin.com

If this trend continues, we could predict the bitcoin price to go up as more and more people start using bitcoin.

Looking at the data from December 2013 to December 2019 shows that the price has moved from $400 to $7500 at a rate of 3:1, that is, for every two wallets created the price moved 1x. Between 2013 wallet count of 838,000 to 2019 wallet count of 45,000,000 represents a 53 times growth in number of wallets. The price of $400 in 2013 to $7500 in 2019 indicates a 18 times increase in the price. A correlation of 3:1.

Factor #4: Losing trust in the Fiat currency

The US Dollar has lost about 11% of its purchasing power since 2013. During the same period Bitcoin has increased 1794%. 

According to a report released by Raulo Pal, Bitcoin is just getting started and has the potential to 70x from here which should put the bitcoin average price around $500,000.  But Raoul thinks Bitcoin could hit $1 Million in the coming years.

If you ask true bitcoin maximalists they consider valuing Bitcoin price in fiat as a moot point. ‘How does it matter what its value is in a fake currency that inherently has no value,’ they would tell you.

For the purposes of how the world measures anything, that is the US Dollar, I think it is safe to say that as the dollar keeps losing its value, now in an accelerated way due to the COVID-19 related stimulus package in the trillions, bitcoin will proportionately pick up its value.

It may not be long before we will start measuring bitcoin in satoshis rather than whole bitcoin prices. 

If you want to find out which direction bitcoin price will move, look at the release of new fiat into the economy.  

Factor #5: Macro economic aspects

ResearchGate published a paper on factors influencing Bitcoin’s price.  In that paper, researchers used the VEC model using Gold price as the reference point.  Since the correlation between gold and macro economic aspects such as Consumer Price Index (CPI), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), US Dollar Index (USDI), Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and Gold Fixing Price, the researchers have used these same factors to study their impact on Bitcoin.

The study concluded that “the economic factors such as CPI, DJIA, FFR and USDI do have a long-term negative influence on Bitcoin price. This result indicates that in the market Bitcoin behaves similar to gold as a financial asset to a certain extent. But gold price has no influence on Bitcoin’s price in the long run.”

A study titled, The economics of Bitcoin price formation, looks at the macroeconomic aspects of the demand and supply on bitcoin price movement.  This includes the increasing demand for bitcoin while the supply is slashed.  In addition, the study found that the more people that learn about Bitcoin the greater the price movement. Paper concludes “the arrival of new information impacts BitCoin price positively, which may be a result of increasing trust among users.”

Conclusion

If one wants to predict the short-term bitcoin price movement – they only have to look at the chatter on social media, especially google search trends.  An increase in the positive mentions on Reddit, Twitter and CNBC tend to correlate with positive price movements within 24 hours. Negative mentions on the same source result in the negative price movement and usually faster than the positive movement.

If you want to understand the long-term price movement you should consider the increasing user base and shifts in macroeconomic aspects to assess the trajectory of bitcoin price.

Also read: This global macro investment paper predicts bitcoin price will hit $100,000 in next 2 years.

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. Stay safe and healthy!

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

We have used referral codes where available.

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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What Are Smart Cities and the Role of Blockchain In Smart Cities?

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What Are Smart Cities and the Role of Blockchain In Smart Cities?

IT experts have designed smart cities to develop, deploy, and promote sustainable development practices.

Now, what are smart cities? 

A smart city is a framework mostly composed of Information and Communication Technologies or ICT to address growing urbanization challenges.

A considerable part of a smart city framework or an ICT framework is that it consists of an intelligent network of connected objects and machines. 

These machines transmit information through cloud applications and with the use of wireless technology. 

Cloud-based IoT applications receive, analyze, and manage all this data in real-time, which helps municipalities, enterprises, and citizens make better decisions. 

The use of smart phones and connected cars and homes citizens engage with smart city ecosystems. 

A way to cut costs and improve sustainability is to pair devices with the city’s physical infrastructure and services. 

With the help of a smart city framework, we can find solutions to many community problems. For instance: 

  • Traffic lights connected to cloud-based applications can receive data from sensors and cars. In return, light cadence and timing in response to real-time traffic can improve, which reduces road congestion
  • Parking meters and electric vehicles charging docks can communicate with cars to find the nearest available spot
  • With the help of smart garbage cans synced to waste management companies, garbage is collected and scheduled to be picked up when needed instead of the pre-planned schedule
  • Instead of plastic cards for driver’s licenses and ID cards, citizen’s smart phones take their place. In return, access to the city and local government services are speed-up and simplified

Together, smart city frameworks help in optimizing infrastructure, public service, utilities, and mobility.

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Why Are Smart Cities Being Built?

Urbanization is a problem faced by every country all over the world. 

According to statistics, 54% of the total population of the world lives in cities. The number is estimated to reach 66% by 2050. 

Over the next three decades, urbanization will make another 2.5 billion people migrate to cities, and to keep up with this rapid expansion, environmental, economic, and social sustainability is a must. 

Smart cities can provide such a framework to rely on.

Examples of smart cities  

AMSTERDAM SMART CITY:

A shining example of a well-connected smart city would be Amsterdam. The initiative of making Amsterdam a smart city began in 2009, and it includes over 170 projects. 

It sends traffic and transportation data to related parties such as developers who create mapping apps connected to the city’s transportation system. 

Due to this, navigating the city is simple and easy. The smart city infrastructure supports a floating village of houses, which helps with urbanization with a sustainable and eco-friendly alternative.

COPENHAGEN SMART CITY:

One of the smallest cities in the world, Copenhagen, is known worldwide for its mobilizing expertise. 

In collaboration with MIT, Copenhagen is leveraging open data to build an innovative bike system. 

Real-time data is shared to monitor and manage air quality as well as traffic congestion.

How Do Smart Cities Become Successful?

Along with people, dwellings, businesses, and traditional urban infrastructure, we will need four other essential elements to enable smart cities to succeed. The four elements are:

  •     Security that can be trusted
  •     Flexible monetization schemes
  •     Open information
  •     Extensive wireless connectivity

Risks   

Probably the most significant concern about smart cities is the danger of privacy breaches. 

Governments, businesses, and individuals spend millions of dollars on preventing leakage of data to outsiders, and as little as possible is shared. 

The key enabler of sustainability in smart cities would be the complex ecosystem that shares information and combines it in real-time. 

Only with the cooperation of multiple sectors can better and sustainable outcomes be achieved and to receive real-time contextual information, while making sure data is kept secured. 

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Role of Blockchain in Smart Cities

blockchainThe role of smart cities is to incorporate technology as the groundwork to take the edge off the problems that plague the current system. 

Examples of current smart city capabilities are universal identification (ID), green energy, water, pollution management, forms of transportation, wireless internet systems, and promotion of local businesses, to name a few. 

The ‘Internet of Things’ serves the current technology needs of smart cities; this term is used to define the integrated network of gadgets with planted exclusive identifiers. Examples include traffic management and e-commerce. 

A traffic management program called SCOOT improves green light time at intersections by providing inductive loop and magnetometer data to a supercomputer, in London, coordinating the traffic lights to enhance the traffic across the city. 

An astounding forty-seven thousand new jobs in Barcelona were created due to the implementation of a network of fiber optics that provides free and fast Wi-Fi, which supports the IoT and the integration of smart parking, lighting, and water management. 

In Amsterdam, the IoT-based infrastructure was tested by allowing traffic flow, public safety, and energy usage to be monitored and tweaked depending on real-time data. Moreover, cities like Baltimore and Boston have introduced smart trash cans that transfer information to determine the best pickup route for garbage disposal crew. 

India was the pioneer country to successfully enact a smart city project across 12 of its cities, in the year 2015. 

All of the above examples demonstrate the reliance on IoT infrastructure and blockchain can make IoT become more resilient and efficient.  

It is evident that Blockchain gives the groundwork for the management of transactions by providing security and transparency. 

Today many smart cities have a large scale Blockchain implementation or distributed ledger technology. 

By the next year, Dubai is aiming to become the first Blockchain-powered smart city in the world.

Since 2012, Estonia has used distributed ledger technology to keep records of its citizens. 

Companies like Hancom are the emerging suppliers of services and products related to IoT hardware for smart city development. 

The Hancom group will incorporate Blockchain technology to set up a 470-acre smart city development project in Gapyeong Malang Malang, as the basis for smart city development. 

This company also developed the 30-acre Augury Square in Atlanta, which will incorporate the use of cryptocurrency, pushing forward the usage of digital currency into the daily lives of its inhabitants. 

Information collected and kept in a cloud-based framework can be encoded by a Blockchain system to ensure the security of data in a smart city. 

Blockchain can be used for identification, for proof of citizenship, tax data, voting, to name a few. 

The elimination of paperwork in such a system helps to manage and reduce pollution in smart cities. 

Other services that can incorporate Blockchain in smart cities are: 

  •     Use of internet sensors to identify general repairs and road maintenance
  •     They connect to healthcare services for emergencies
  •     They are providing first responders with pertinent medical data
  •     Connection of residential utilities and rent to the Blockchain

Blockchain provides the framework to unite the services in a single system capable of tracking, security, immutability, transparency and above all SECURITY.

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. Stay safe and healthy!

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Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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How Bitcoin and Crypto can liberate people to help each other!

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How Bitcoin and Crypto can liberate people to help each other!

I was watching this video about the atrocities of China and its authoritarian regime. 

Gravitas: Three Gorges Dam | China’s dam of doom | China floods | WION

China’s Three Gorges Dam is one of the most controversial infrastructure projects. The dam flooded 13 cities, 140 towns, and 1,352 villages when it was built…

I kept thinking, if I and few of my friends could pitch in, we could literally change one life for sure…life of this lady and her family.

But alas, we don’t have a way to help…because this person is probably unbanked or banked with an institute that will require us to jump 100 meter red tape to help.

Again, we do not like China’s authoritarian regime.

But the people of China must be just like us. With simple wishes and desires to get through life.

If governments keep screwing people like these, people can come to the rescue to save each other, no matter where they live on this bright blue planet of ours.

However, the biggest strength that the government has over each of us is the ‘system’.

A system that demands slavery from its citizens to the rules that thwart the welfare of its citizens every step of the way.

For the record, I hate China and its authoritarian regime. I do not hate the people of China.  

I think they are just like me, trying to get by with their lives in peace and not to be bothered.

But what are they supposed to do when the Government (or anti-social elements) steal what is rightfully theirs?

They can seek help but the current system keeps them outside of the realms of ‘receiving help’.

This is why we love Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies and what they represent.  

People helping each other without the red tape.

Someone might argue that the anti-social elements can also use this powerful weapon for their ill-goals.  

Yes, we agree.

What’s stopping them from using ‘physical cash’?

At least, with bitcoin and crypto, every transaction can be forever tracked.  That means, if some anti-social elements were to use bitcoin and crypto for sick activities, they can be tracked forever.

Can you track someone who uses cash?    

No chance.

So, our belief in Crypto only gets stronger by the minute because of the immense potential it offers people to become their own banks and decide how their hard earned money is spent.

I think this is a basic right that every person deserves!?

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. Stay safe and healthy!

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We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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Nikola Tesla & Bitcoin

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Nikola Tesla Bitcoin

Nikola Tesla was ahead of his time.

He had over 700 patents to his name and at some point, Patents’ office refused to grant a patent to him because his invention was too inconceivable.

Of course, Tesla actually built the model to show them that it was possible.  

This was the ‘wireless’ controlled device.  Tesla used this technology on a wireless boat in a pool at Madison Square. 

Tesla actually discovered the radio communication two years before Guglielmo Marconi.  

Many of his inventions still form the ‘basis’ of everything we build in our modern society.

If you think you can outsmart Tesla, think again.  He even conceived of ‘wireless current’ long before people even got used to the Alternate Current (which is what we use to this day).

History.com captures Tesla’s accomplishments in one paragraph (although it does not capture all):  “Tesla invented electric oscillators, meters, improved lights and the high-voltage transformer known as the Tesla coil. He also experimented with X-rays, gave short-range demonstrations of radio communication two years before Guglielmo Marconi and piloted a radio-controlled boat around a pool in Madison Square Garden.”

Fiat is the modern day Direct Current

The Fiat system that we are living on is the modern day DC.  

Edison had to build DC stations every 2 miles just to transport the unsustainable and unreliable DC.

Similarly, to make the unsustainable fiat work we use banks and institutions to keep it alive.  

Now, the modern day electricity that we use is Alternate Current (AC) and it does not need power stations built every 2 miles and could be transported to long distances using wires.

What is even more crazy is that Tesla had built a ‘Wireless Current’ (WC) lab that was purportedly destroyed at JP Morgan’s behest because WC could mean ‘end of profits’. 

Take that in for a second.  Wireless Current that’s made available to anyone anywhere in the world.   

That was the basic fallacy of Tesla’s lack of business acumen.  You see, JP Morgan had already invested millions of dollars in laying out electric wires in the hope of profits.

Then Tesla goes on to propose a new electric system that does not need wires or anyone to ‘bill’ for the free energy. 

Of course, this did not appeal to JP Morgan.

If Nikola Tesla had married his idea with the ‘profit’ equation solved, we might have been using WC by now.

Similar to Tesla, many good hearted idealists have walked this earth and they all proposed some radical ideas to change the world.

They too were missing the ‘profit’ equation.  For instance, the idea of Blockchain was proposed as far back as 1958.

Nothing happened because it was missing the ‘profit – reward’ equation.

Bitcoin married the ideology with commerce.  Bitcoin is that WC but with the ‘profits’ equation solved.

Think about it.  

Anyone can become their own bank.  Anyone can use it to conduct commerce with anyone around the world.  And anyone participating in this ecosystem is rewarded with ‘mining fees’.

Brilliant.

What good reason do we need banks once Bitcoin becomes the norm?  

Bitcoin will not make banks disappear. They serve a purpose, just like the batteries that we use in 1000s of devices do, in spite of AC.

Conspiracies abound Tesla and Bitcoin alike

Nikola Tesla had 700 patents to his name. He gave us all the light that we enjoy today. He made wireless systems possible. 

He is even claimed to have invented a ‘death ray’ that could melt tankers from 200 mile distance. No one knows the truth of this claim.

However, it is a known fact that after Tesla died in 1943, all of his life work was confiscated by the United States government. History.com reports “representatives of the U.S. government’s Office of Alien Property seized many documents relating to the brilliant and prolific 86-year-old inventor’s work.”

No one knows what was hidden in those documents that contained the life-work of Tesla.

Remember, he was the guy who invented wireless control devices in 1898 and he died in 1943.  

What did he invent in the interim 45 years?

Similarly, we do not know who the real Satoshi Nakamoto is today.  We do not know if he/she/it/they are alive or dead.

We do not know if the supposed Million Bitcoins in Satoshi’s wallet will ever be moved (that could hint Satoshi is alive).

But it doesn’t matter.  

Same as what Nikola Tesla did with his inventions and forever changed the world with the gift of AC, Satoshi might have altered the course of the financial world for good with Bitcoin.

Tesla foresaw his destiny and he captured it in a beautiful quote: The present is theirs; the future, for which I really worked, is mine.

That quote rings true for Tesla as much as it does for Bitcoin.

If you landed on this page looking for Elon Musk’s Crypto: Go to Energy Web Token

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. Stay safe and healthy!

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Image Source:

“IMG_0761” by boba777 is licensed under CC BY 2.0

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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