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What caused the Bitcoin crash? Lessons to learn

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2020 was a good start for bitcoin that went from $7200 to $10,300 in just 40 days.  Then it dropped with all other assets during the pandemic. It came crashing down on March 13th from $8000 to around $4200.  This raised the question on whether Bitcoin is truly a safe haven like gold or silver? Or does it just play along with the stock market, if so, why should anyone diversify into Bitcoin?

First of all, Bitcoin is more than a mere safe haven.  It is a piece of the technology and by that token piece of history.  When you buy bitcoin – you are buying into the ecosystem that is being built (and will be built in the future). 

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However, that argument will not satisfy those who are losing their life savings in bitcoin who hoped that Bitcoin would not react the same way the stock market does and provide hedge against traditional market.

Is this crash caused by the pandemic? 

The important question on everyone’s mind is: is this bitcoin crash caused by coronavirus pandemic? 

In our opinion, not entirely, though it was one of the reasons for the crash but not entirely. 

Reasons that ignited the crash:

1. Plus Token Scam

Plustoken scam, as pointed by Sue Zhu and ErgoBTC, that the team of plus token has moved a very large amount of bitcoin to their account and later diversified them into two accounts.

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Plustoken was a ponzi scheme spotted back in Nov’ 2019 when Ergo warned about what’s happening. 

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These scammers are dumping their loot into the market and they don’t care at what price they can sell.  This massive sale off was combined with the market crash due to the pandemic and we had a rather ugly drop in Bitcoin price.  As you will see that the bottom did not last long as Bitcoin quickly jumped back.

2. Stock Market Crash

The pandemic, lockdown, massive job losses and looming recession (or even fear of depression) all forced the market to sell off.  Bitcoin is a relatively new asset which has not seen a single recession in its lifetime, as such, people naturally want to liquidate bitcoin along with their stock holdings into fiat to stock up food and essentials.  This is understandable during times like these. With the markets tumbling down and the trading halted, the ripple effect impacted all asset classes including bitcoin.

3. Panic Selling

Mass hysteria is a real thing.  Market doesn’t run on fundamentals – it runs on sentiment. Right now market sentiment is probably at its worst. This fear sentiment created a massive sell off in everything. We heard crazy news about how people were fighting over toilet papers or paying ridiculous amounts of money for it. That’s what happens when fear grips the market – it loses its rational mind.  A rational mind would say ‘bitcoin is going to be the future of money’ but a fear gripped mind would say ‘I need fiat in hand to provide for my family’.  The danger is not baseless but the overblown fear is.  

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Lessons to learn

  • Do not panic (FUD) sell or FOMO buy

Never go with the market that is driven by fear or greed. However, those are the two primary emotions that drive the market – so it is easier said than done. Those who bought when the market hit low $4200 are now sitting on a 50% gain in a short time. And those who sold at those rates are now re-thinking their decision.  Never put an amount in bitcoin or cryptocurrency that you are not willing to lose. We personally own a fraction of bitcoin that we will never sell, at least, not anytime soon.

  • Markets are meant to fluctuate

Market volatility is the norm.  Extreme volatility is the norm in crypto space. Veteran crypto traders have endured market crashes that traditional investors would never dream of living through.  Crypto space is not for the faint of hearts. Decide before you enter.

  • Bitcoin is still hedge against fiat inflationary practices

The very fact that governments around the world can print as much money they want, whenever they want, is a strong case for Bitcoin.  The US and Europe with a combined GDP of $26 Trillion have a combined debt of estimated $51 Trillion, they are never going to pay this back – instead – they will eventually have to rely on alternatives (like bail-ins or demonetization or tapping into Citizen’s accounts).  We may not see a country leaning toward those options anytime soon but we might see it sooner than later in other countries. Gold and Bitcoin continue to be the safe havens against fiat inflation. Gold is not finite (at least at the moment) – bitcoin is definitely finite and makes it more dear of an asset to own and HODL.

Of course, no one knows how this pandemic will end and the consequences of it in the near and long-term future.  In our speculative opinion, we will see some solutions emerging before May and the economy will start, even if slowly at the beginning, in May 2020.  The stock market will rally back up sharply – however – the after effects of printing unlimited money will catch up in form of inflation and fiat will start losing its power.  How far will that loss go – we will have to wait and see.

Stay safe out there. 

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Thank you for reading and sharing this article. Keep safe and healthy!

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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Why this bull run has no precedence? ONE key metric to rule them all

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bull run 2020

Everyone is singing the praises for the bulls’ arrival in the crypto space.

Some say that 2020 will mark the biggest bull run in cryptos’, albeit short, history.  

We are already in October so we doubt any fireworks will take place now since there is a lot of uncertainty about the US elections.

Add the uncertainty around the stimulus bills, unemployment trends, soon to be lifted forbearances and the list goes on.

2020 still has another 2.5 months to go but most of these uncertainties will take a while to show their true impact.

For instance, what will a Biden presidency mean for the economy and cryptos?  

How many people will be forced to sell their homes once the forbearance’s are lifted?

What happens if the next stimulus bill does not pass through?

When will the vaccine become available?

These are some of the unique situations that we have no precedence for. Do not let anyone convince you that we know what’s going to unfold, because no one does.

Yes, everyone has theories, like the ones we are presenting here, but that is all they are: theories.

The BIGGEST metric that crypto community is not considering

We are no economists nor can we run any fancy charts to impress a point on you.  

We are just good observers and have common sense to deduce a few things based on data.  

For instance, between 2007 and 2010 consumer spending dropped by an overall .2% and we know what that meant for the economy.

Personal consumption expenditure

In 2020, people have literally cut down on their spending.  Some of it is forced due to the restrictions imposed by external forces and most of it is self imposed.

I am sure the spending on marijuana, liquor and food have gone up but what about other spending?

2020 also saw a spike in the savings balances.  

Economy is not stimulated by people hoarding their money. People need to exchange value for the economy to thrive.

What happens to the spending behaviors when the true stats around evictions, lost jobs (that are not coming back) and small businesses that are shutting down permanently are out?

Our guess is that people are going to be weary of spending money in the short to medium term. If we were forced to pick a timeline – we would say about 12-16 months (assuming we get a vaccine in Q1 2021).

When is the next bull run? 

Based on what we have seen in 2007 through 2010 and observing the consumer spending habits in recent times, we think that Bitcoin (and cryptos) will not find their true peak until next halving.

We know this is not what you came to hear.  

If the bull run in your mind is hitting the 2017 highs then we do not think you have to wait until the next bull run.

If the bull run means a $100,000 bitcoin then we stand by our opinion on when that is going to be.

A case for bull run

In spite of what is going on in the street, following factors are acting as strong bull market signals for the crypto space. 

Hype: Crypto space (specifically Bitcoin) has been gathering a lot of steam in terms of brand awareness and mass penetration.  This is great for the long game.

Adoption: More than ever, private and public enterprises are becoming serious about bitcoin and underlying blockchain technology.  What is good for bitcoin is good for blockchain and vice-versa.  MicroStrategy investment, Paul Tudor Jones getting involved with bitcoin are some examples.

Tech explosion: Crypto space is home to some of the brilliant minds in the tech space. Add Big Techs interest in the crypto space and you have a perfect recipe for monumental shifts in crypto perception. Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Twitter, Facebook are all getting involved with blockchain and cryptocurrencies in some shape or form.

Retail demand: More and more retail investors are looking for alternative investments and they are waiting on the sidelines to get involved with Bitcoin.  As soon as companies like Fidelity or other brands offer crypto investment through retirement plans – there would be a massive influx into this space.

DeFi: DeFi in its current state might be infested with shittty projects but as a concept and technological shift to turn the current banking system upside down – it holds great potential. Any demand to DeFi brings more demand to bitcoin, ethereum and blockchain in general.

Conclusion

The debate around when is the next bull run will hinge on how the market recovers from this pandemic. How soon will we get the vaccine and how many of the lost small businesses and jobs are we going to resurrect?

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin and few select cryptocurrencies will continue their upward trajectory so if you looked back to 2020 five years from now, you might think bitcoin was on sale.  

Question is: how many people have that kind of patience?

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. We appreciate you.

Stay safe and healthy!

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies 2020

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

 

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Is Cryptocurrency driven by fundamentals or hype?

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Fundamentals or Hype

During the early 2000s India experienced a massive real estate bubble. With a lot of western companies opening their outsourcing centers in India, the land prices shot up 2x, 5x, 10x, and even 100x.

You read that right. 

Have you heard about 100x in Real Estate?

To be sure, the demand was exponentially growing in the major cities like Bangalore, Hyderabad, etc., which were quickly turning into back offices for the many western companies.

The hype in these cities was somewhat justified.

However, here is the kicker.  Many remote places which did not directly benefit from this influx of foreign direct investment started seeing their prices go up in similar fashion.

In a crazy case of trickle effect and super-hype created by the real estate agents, properties were just trading from one party to another for unbelievable markups and the prices constantly went up.

Today, that massive bubble is still intact minus the crazy multipliers.

The reason we like the comparison of what happened in Indian Real Estate market to the crypto is that a genuine need in a specific space has been exploited to translate that hype onto anything tagged with the name. 

In India that hype tag was ‘land’ and in crypto that hype tag could mean anything from ICOs to DeFi.

Ask any crypto enthusiast they will make you believe that crypto is all about fundamentals.  However, anyone who has spent even a few months in the space quickly realizes that crypto prices don’t follow fundamentals.  

This is one place where Crypto space shares its similarities with the stock market as well.

Stock market is completely distanced from the economy and it too acts irrationally, that is, when people are losing jobs and businesses are shutting down permanently, the stock market rallies higher and higher.

Similarly, crypto space, to its own detriment, is ignoring the projects that have amazing fundamentals while pumping other projects solely based on the hype.

Long term vs. Short term

Hype is short lived. Fundamentals are a long game.

That is why we emphasize that anyone interested in the crypto space does their own research in finding the projects that meet their fundamental criteria.

Once you know that a project has fundamentals (team that can execute, problem worth solving, solution that can solve, market demand, etc.,) then you just ignore the FOMO and FUD.

This will help you sleep better and use your spare time and energy in quality endeavors like taking care of yourself or spending time with family, etc.,

If you get on the hype train – it will be difficult to catch the right wave and this constant lookout for the next big thing is going to rob you of all the peace.

And, if you find yourself on the right side of the wave – you will be decimated and drowned.

DeFi defies all common sense

That is what happened with a lot of people who tried to ‘time’ the DeFi market.  

Don’t get us wrong. Many people made a ton of money (and good for them).  However, remember, crypto at this point of its evolution is a zero sum game.  That means, for everyone who made a million someone lost that million.

Unless you got on a project quite early keeping your risk level low or you have some insider information (not to mention this being illegal), you can generally not ‘time’ the market.

Many veteran traders have lost their shirts in chasing the market.

Conclusion: does this mean I should stay away from DeFi?

We cannot tell you that.  That is something you got to decide for yourself.

By market cap, Yearn Finance is considered one of the top DeFi projects. It lost over 67% in less than a month.   

Personally, if the top most project is still trying to find the ground while other projects are losing 99% of their value in a matter of a day, that means one thing:  the space needs time to mature.

We will continue to learn about DeFi. We will continue to invest what we can afford to lose when we find the right project that meets our fundamentals criteria.

That is our strategy at the moment. You have to find a strategy that suits you.

While crypto space is riding on the hype at the moment, we continue to believe in fundamentals.

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. We appreciate you.

Stay safe and healthy!

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies 2020

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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Will India Ban Cryptocurrency Trading?

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Cryptocurrrency Ban India

India keeps playing with the emotions of the crypto community in India with constant back and forth of change in rules.

First it was a complete ban of crypto transactions. RBI forbids banks from serving any clients that deal in cryptocurrencies. Thanks to the Supreme court decision, RBI had to back off.

Now, there is a renewed effort to place a ban on crypto again.  

Is Crypto Ban a good thing for India’s financial future?

No, Cryptocurrency is here to stay according to many financial investors and billionaires. As nations prepare for a hyper-inflation cycle to sweep the world, Cryptocurrency can act as a hedge in addition to gold and silver.

If the government is concerned about illegal activities with cryptos then they can relax because most crimes happen in fiat cash transactions, not crypto which is traceable.

Crypto traders generally are not the ones that take part in illicit trades.  It is those who introduce illegal ICOs and OTC trades.

How about regulations?

Instead of banning crypto trades, how about bringing clear regulations to provide a framework for the crypto trading.

Such a framework should include stricter guidelines for ICOs and OTC trades.  

Crypto exchanges can relay the trading information directly to the tax authorities (instead of needing to be subpoenaed) so that there is transparency.

Will India Ban Cryptocurrency Trading?

That depends on whether India wants to be in the ranks of the United States, Switzerland, South Korea, etc., or if it wants to be counted among China, Russia and North Korea.

The United States, South Korea and Switzerland (along with other countries) are doing everything to stay ahead in the blockchain and crypto race.

Other countries we stated above are working to stomp on the innovation. 

A better question is: Can India ban cryptocurrency trading?  

The answer is NO.  

To ban cryptocurrency trading – India will have to shut down the internet.  

In the event of an actual law that bans Indians from participating in the cryptocurrency trading, the only people that will be impacted by those are the ‘honest’ citizens because the crooked ones will still find ways to trade using VPN or alias names.

For a country that wants to be at the forefront of technological revolution a ban would be a very backward decision.

We urge the Indian government to NOT punish the honest citizens by introducing a ban.  Rather, introduce a sensible legal framework for everyone to operate in.

This will bring more businesses to India and take India’s platforms to the world.

Thank you for reading and sharing this article. We appreciate you.

Stay safe and healthy!

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies 2020

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

Everything in this article is an opinion, not an advice of any kind. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, investment, legal or other professional advice. Please consult with a professional for specific advice.

We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information and claims made.

All product and company names are trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.

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